Featured Perspective: With Change Comes Opportunity

By Tony Zink

THE WRITING ON THE WALL

Like it or not, the transportation industry as we know it is changing... and it is happening at a break-neck pace. In the past 18-24 months, we have witnessed skyrocketing crude oil prices and a near-collapse of financial markets, which ultimately brought the major automakers to their knees. The old ways of doing business for the grey beards will no longer work, and although GM and Chrysler have completed their restructuring, I fear that they and some others are still holding too tightly onto many of their old carmaker paradigms. If they do not erase their whiteboards and completely re-think their business, the true innovators will swoop in and eat their lunch.

FACT: THE INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINE IS DYING

The basic technology that drives most automobiles today, the in-cylinder, four-stroke internal combustion engine (ICE), is over a century old. At their peak, these dinosaurs yield a maximum of 35%-40% efficiency, with an average efficiency closer to 20%. Most of the energy in a gallon of fuel is wasted. Where does this lost energy go? The ICE converts it to heat, which eventually ends up in the earth's atmosphere. Engineers have added increasingly complex fuel, ignition, exhaust, cooling, and electronic control and diagnostic systems over the years, only marginally increasing the engine's efficiency while adding to its weight, cost, and complexity.

Along with the excessive heat that the ICE releases, it also releases a number of pollutants into the atmosphere. A perfectly designed engine should release only carbon dioxide and water, but even today's engines -- after more than a century of development -- are far from perfect. Engineers have added increasingly complex and expensive emissions controls systems over the years, only marginally reducing the harmful pollutants while again increasing weight, cost, and complexity.

PURE ELECTRIC POWERTRAINS ARE THE ANSWER... AT LEAST FOR NOW

Electric motors, on the other hand, can achieve 75%-90%+ efficiency, with very little energy lost in the form of heat. Electric motors release less heat and virtually no pollutants into the atmosphere. An electric powertrain is very simple, primarily consisting of one or more electric motors, a system of electronics for controlling motor operation, a battery, and a charging system. Pound for pound, an electric motor also produces much more torque than an ICE, thus providing superior performance.

History shows us that even though electric propulsion is a superior technology to the ICE today, someone will most certainly develop a more efficient, smaller, lighter, faster, less expensive technology sometime in the future. Until that happens, the pure electric powertrain is our best option.

"SHOCKING" TRENDS IN THE TRANSPORTATION INDUSTRY

Not only is the internal combustion engine dying, but so is the transportation industry as we know it. We have seen how fuel prices, environmental concerns, and global economics have turned the largest automotive companies upside down. More people than ever are now turning to smaller, inexpensive vehicles and mass transit. It is now more important than ever for those of us who represent vehicle and parts manufacturers, service providers, government agencies, educational institutions, retailers, and driver communities to stay informed on the rapidly evolving world of Electric Vehicles.

We have seen incredible technical progress during the past 12 months, and at the current pace the next 12 will be even more amazing. One year ago, a 40-mile EV range was fairly standard, and today a 100-mile range is commonplace... with bleeding-edge vehicle manufacturers achieving 300+ miles per charge. One year ago, we accepted overnight home charging as the standard, and today charging systems are capable of recharging an EV in only 15 minutes!

EMERGING OPPORTUNITIES IN A RAPIDLY TRANSFORMING INDUSTRY

The trends clearly show that practical Electric Vehicles are only months -- not years -- away, so those of us who work within the automotive industry -- or whose livelihoods somehow depend on it -- are wise to reposition our companies, our product and service offerings, and our careers to take advantage of this incredible once-in-a-lifetime-opportunity. Here are a few ways that the game is changing... and how we can benefit from these changes.

Vehicle Maintenance and Service: Although EVs are much simpler mechanically than ICE-powered vehicles, they require advanced technical skills for service, maintenance, troubleshooting, and upgrading. Electrification requires sophisticated electronics and software, so technicians will need to become computer geeks in order to work on your EV.

Hardware and Software Products and Services: As stated previously, EVs will have sophisticated hardware and software-based architectures, and the forward-looking auto manufacturer will leverage what we have learned during the last three decades of computing innovation, rather than re-inventing the wheel. This architecture, based on today's commoditized hardware, solid-state storage, high-speed serial communications, open-source operating systems, and wireless mobile networks, will create an entirely new hardware and software product and service market for the most expensive piece of electronic equipment you will ever purchase. Always-connected networks will allow Electric Vehicles to interact with everything, everywhere. Your EV will communicate with your home networks and computers, mobile networks and devices, and even other EVs.

EV WattSpots Everywhere: Many people view owning a corner gas station as a self-sustaining cash cow, but most cannot open their own station because the barrier to entry is too high. Hundreds of thousands of dollars in liquid capital is often required, tens of thousands of dollars worth of environmental testing needs to be performed, licenses need to be obtained if selling lottery tickets, cigarettes, or alcohol... and at the end of the day, the profits are razor thin. An EV charging station, on the other hand, costs only a few thousand dollars and can be installed nearly any place with electrical service. These EV 'WattSpots' will be in huge demand as the Electric Vehicle population grows, and will provide a business opportunity to any city, municipality, employer, parking garage or lot owner, shopping center developer, or brick and mortar business owner... either in the form of direct revenue from the WattSpots or an additional service to patrons or employees.

EV WattSpots Everywhere, Part 2: As stated previously, EV WattSpots will be in huge demand as the Electric Vehicle population grows, so every home, business, and municipality will need to be EV ready. Any place a vehicle can park will represent an opportunity for WattSpot manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as the electrical contractors who will be installing them. Specialized electrical contractors will most likely emerge who do nothing but install, maintain, and service these EV charging stations.

EV and Parts Manufacturing: Because of the relative simplicity of an Electric Vehicle, the barrier to entry for vehicle manufacturers is lower than ever. Commoditized chassis components, motors, vehicle electronics, and batteries allow anyone with a garage and a little capital to start their very own 'Joe's Electric Motorcars'. Similar to the early years of the 20th century, small manufacturers are appearing in large numbers, and innovation is rapid and rampant because of the current lack of standards. However, as in the early 20th century, many of these startups may not survive long without quality products, great design, standardized architectures, robust supply chains, and generally good business practices.

These are only a few of the many opportunities that are opening up to us thanks to the upcoming Electric Vehicle revolution. It is truly an exciting time for anyone who can see what a radically changing transportation industry has to offer. Let us all take this opportunity to jump onto the train with the other early adopters, embrace electrification, and reap the benefits as public adoption grows for many years to come!

About the Author

Tony Zink has 15 years of practical experience working in the fields of automotive manufacturing, program planning, consulting, authoring, training, and community building. On the plant floor, he has worked side by side with skilled trades people automating and optimizing automotive manufacturing processes. In the engineering office, he has designed the equipment, control systems, and software to automate those processes. In the planning office, he has designed and integrated the detailed program schedules to manage the development of automotive powertrain and electrical systems. In the server room and the conference room, he has installed, configured, and trained personnel in using sophisticated enterprise information systems to manage their product development and manufacturing programs.

Tony earned a Bachelor of Sciences in Electrical Engineering (BSEE) degree in 1995 from Michigan Technological University.